Trajectoires de résilience économique régionale face à la crise de 2008 – quelle relation avec la nature du territoire ? Etude de cas sur la Roumanie
Keywords:
effets de la crise, résilience économique régionale, typologies territoriales, territoire urbain/rural, territoire central/périphériqueAbstract
[FR] La crise financière globale de 2008 a bouleversé l’ensemble de l’économie mondiale mais les mécanismes de propagation, ainsi que l’impact n’ont pas été neutres du point de vue spatial, car certains territoires ont réagi mieux que d’autres face à ce même défi. Notre contribution test l’hypothèse selon laquelle la nature du territoire est un facteur explicatif important pour les trajectoires différentes de résilience. Dans ce but, on a créé d’abord une typologie de résilience par rapport à la crise, selon la dynamique du PIB/habitant avant (2000-2008) et après ce choc économique (2010-2015). Ensuite on a créé trois typologies des départements roumains selon trois critères qui reflètent leur nature intrinsèque: urbaine/rurale, centrale/périphérique, agricole/industrielle/ tertiaire. Enfin, on a croisé les typologies de résilience avec les trois typologies selon la nature du territoire, à l’aide de l’analyse des correspondances. Cette approche nous a permis tout d’abord de mettre en évidence la complexité des dynamiques de résilience. La typologie rend compte d’une variété importante des trajectoires subies par les départements roumains, trajectoires qui ont été regroupés en six catégories représentatives: leaders dynamiques; leaders en perte de vitesse ; leaders potentiels ; territoires (re)dynamisés; territoires pauvres mais rattrapage soutenu; territoires en difficulté relative. Les résultats valident partiellement l’hypothèse, en montrant que les trajectoires prospères après et avant la crise concernent seulement les départements métropolitains ou centraux. Par contre, la réciproque n’est pas tellement valable ; seulement la moitié des départements centraux et métropolitains s’encadre dans une trajectoire prospère. Les résultats montrent aussi une possible existence d’un potentiel transformatif (territoires (re)dynamisés) parmi tous les types de régions NUTS 3, ce que devrait inciter à nous demander sur l’importance des dynamiques de développement locales (y compris les politiques publiques et les décisions des différents acteurs) dans la construction de la résilience territoriale.
[EN] The global financial crisis of 2008 upset the entire world economy, but the propagation mechanisms, as well as the impact, were not neutral from a spatial point of view, as some territories reacted better than others to this same challenge. Our contribution tests the hypothesis that the nature of the territory is an important explanatory factor for the different resilience trajectories. To this end, we first created a typology of resilience in relation to the crisis, according to the dynamics of GDP/capita before (2000-2008) and after this economic shock (2010-2015). Then we created three typologies of Romanian departments according to three criteria that reflect their intrinsic nature: urban/rural, central/peripheral, agricultural/industrial/tertiary. Finally, we crossed the typologies of resilience with the three typologies according to the nature of the territory, using correspondence analysis. This approach allowed us first of all to highlight the complexity of the dynamics of resilience. The typology accounts for an important variety of trajectories undergone by Romanian departments, trajectories that have been grouped into six representative categories: dynamic leaders; leaders in decline; potential leaders; (re)vitalized territories; poor territories with sustained catch-up; territories in relative difficulty. The results partially validate the hypothesis, showing that the prosperous trajectories after and before the crisis only concern metropolitan or central departments. On the other hand, the reciprocal is not so valid; only half of the central and metropolitan departments are on a prosperous trajectory. The results also show a possible existence of a transformative potential ((re)dynamised territories) among all types of NUTS 3 regions, which should question the importance of local development dynamics (including public policies and the decisions of the different actors) in the construction of territorial resilience.
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